I hope you didn’t click on that link, because I did and now I am depressed. While Harbour Town is one of the more pleasant stops all year, it certainly is no Augusta, and the RBC Heritage is definitely not The Masters. With the casual golf fans getting their fix last weekend, the real golf crazies are now injecting ourselves with backdrops of the Hilton Head Lighthouse. For those who played last week, there isn’t a better place to relax, play some golf, and maybe win a golf tournament, then Harbour Town, and the RBC Heritage. Before we get into this week, let’s take a look at how I fared (personally not great) last week at The Masters.
I was bit by the MC bug on most of my teams, but it was more so like just one mosquito bite that annoys the fuck out of you and just ruins your day. Alex Noren, Thomas Pieters, and Patrick Cantlay were those bugs for me this week. However, if you look back at my picks from last week (Day, Rickie, Stenson), they all played very well finishing inside the Top 20, with Rickie putting on the best performance finishing in sole 2nd place. It’s the absolute worst (Frank the Tank voice) when you make solid picks, get lucky and put the right guys together, and one guy just ruins any chance of winning real money because he goes 7 over on the back on Friday to miss the cut (looking at you Mr. Noren). As for my fade of the week, JT did not finish inside the Top 10 so he was not worth his salary, and in turn the right play. Last week is last week, hopefully you rode my picks and put together a couple other guys who had a nice showing and made some money, but if not that’s what this week is for.
— Rex Hoggard (@RexHoggardGC) April 10, 2018
If Augusta was a second shot course, Harbour Town would be considered a third shot course. With greens averaging 3,700 square feet (PGA Tour Average: approx 6,000 square feet) the golfers that catch my eye are going to a) hit greens in reg b) when they hit greens, they hit it close c) when they don’t hit the green, they still make par. If you do any, or all of these things well, it is more than likely you will make it onto one of my lineups this week. With driving distance not really being a factor as Harbour Town plays less than 7,100 yards, as long as you can keep it in the fairway, or the short grass, you will be fine…just stay out of the trees. Other than DJ, this field is lacking superstars, but when you take a deeper look into it, there are good amount of real solid players that have played especially good around these parts.
Most tournaments have that one guy that is always on top of the leaderboard, but just can’t close, kinda like Charley Hoffman on Thursday-Friday of the Masters, Luke Donald is that guy for Harbour Town. This man has never missed a cut here since 2009 (9-9) that included FIVE 2nds, Two 3rds, and a T15, but just can’t finish. When I see trends like this, I tend to fade that trend, for example I would bet against a team like the Indians last year who won like 22 games in a row, because water HAS to find its level right? Luke Donald can’t keep this random success up…right? Scroll down to see if I fade or ride the trend.
Obvious Pick of the Week
Marc Leishman $10,300
If you watched Tiger last week at The Masters, you also watched Marc Leishman put on an absolute clinic with his iron play at Augusta on Thursday and Friday. He kinda fell off on the weekend finishing in 9th, but nonetheless his approach to the green was impeccable. All I can remember from the featured group telecast was the announcers just praised his iron play, calling it some of the best in the world. That was good enough for me, and knew he would have a spot on my top picks the following week, knowing how important that would be at Harbour Town. I would assume he has a relatively low ownership %, similar to last week where he was only 8% owned. Look for Leishman to stay hot and be in the mix on the weekend.
Masters 2018: Marc Leishman | 15th Hole, Round 2 pic.twitter.com/QuxH2MI37b
— Masters Highlights (@MastersMoments) April 6, 2018
Shots like this also help your case for making this weeks lineups.
Gut Guy of the Week
Bill Haas $7,200
One could also consider Haas the “Value Pick of the Week”, but after what Haas has been through the last couple months, this one feels more like a gut pick. After being involved in a car accident before the Genesis Open, which resulted in the death of his friend who was driving the vehicle. Assuming he has fully recovered, physically and mentally, I look for Harbour Town, a Pete Dye original, to be a great place for Haas to get back in the swing of things. Are we hoping for an improbable win? No, but a Top 20, or even a Made Cut would be nice for his value at $7,200, especially on a week like this where there are so many solid golfers available in the 8,000-9,000 range.
Value Pick of the Week
Charley Hoffman $7,700
I know I joked about Hoffman’s track record at Augusta, but luckily this isn’t The Masters, so I have even more confidence in his game this week. For someone who has seen success at Harbour Town notching 3 Top 15’s in his 8 career starts, I thought Charley was under priced and definitely worth his value. If he could get his 4th Top 15 finish this week, that would far exceed his expectations at this cost. Not to mention, this man is coming off a hole in one on Sunday at The Masters, and a final round 67, so you know he is feeling good coming in.
Masters 2018: Charley Hoffman | 16th Hole, Round 4 pic.twitter.com/2LRwwfOrou
— Masters Highlights (@MastersMoments) April 8, 2018
Fade of the Week
Luke Donald $7,700
I alluded to this earlier, and I think I made it pretty clear I was going to fade Luke Donald this week, on the sheer fact that I think he over performs here, and I’m betting that this is the year water finds its level for Luke. If you don’t look at his history at Harbour Town, and just the stats we talked about earlier, Donald ranks 206th in Greens in Reg, 133rd in Proximity, and 125th in Scrambling. That does not scream success at Harbour Town, and yet Luke Donald year in and year out performs at a high level. I call bullshit this week and am fading him, also because the trend is so hot now he has to be highly owned. Perfect example of fading the public on this one.
Good Form+Value+Cuts Made+Swagger-Players I can’t root for =
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @mattmarks19 where I will post my other DK lineups, and my Picks to Win for the RBC Heritage. Rickie Fowler almost won it for us last week, but there are a few guys I see some value in and hopefully they can be on the winning end of a Sunday 67.