Break Out The Mint Juleps & Put On Your Fanciest Hat

Despite what the calendar says, for me, the official start of summer comes on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. That’s when a group of 20 men, none of whom top 120 pounds, remind ¾ ton beasts who’s still at the top of the food chain. It’s the one day a year when we all pretend like horse racing is still a thing. So let’s head to the paddock, and see if any of these future equine gigolos can put some extra ducats in our pocket this weekend.

Firenze Fire 50-1 – A shitty horse in a shitty position. Actually, he’s beaten both Good Magic and Enticed, but that was last year in a much shorter race. He likes running at the head of the pack and that just isn’t happening here.

Free Drop Billy 30-1 – Probably a little undervalued but that doesn’t mean he’s a contender. He’s not. He hasn’t won since October and that won’t change on Saturday.
Promises Fulfilled 30-1 – Another frontrunner who won’t be able to get to the front. If you believe in this horse, you are an eternal optimist. The only promise this horse will fulfill is the promise to make you poorer.

Flameaway 30-1 – Now we’re getting somewhere. Yet another frontrunner with an inside position. Unlike the others, he may actually get there. In four races this year, he has two seconds and two firsts. Look for this price to go down, so if you want to put him at the bottom of a couple of tickets, you might want to do it fairly soon.

Audible 8-1 – He hasn’t lost since last September. Trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to win big races and there’s none bigger than this one. The horse seems to be getting better and better but he hasn’t faced a field this large or as talented.

Good Magic 12-1 – Great bloodlines with his sire being two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin. There’s a lot to like about this horse, who has a top-notch trainer in Chad Brown and a first-class jockey, Jose Ortiz. Brown has won everything but a Derby and he just might get his first right here.

Justify 3-1 – The favorite for a reason. He’s undefeated in his three starts and already has the look of a champion. If you’re looking for a reason not play him, consider this: No horse since Apollo, in 1882, has won here after not racing as a two-year-old.

Lone Sailor 50-1 – Hasn’t won in his last six starts. You know an unlikely time to start a winning streak? The first Saturday in May. Move along, Sailor, nothing to see here.

Hofberg 20-1 – Hall-of-Fame turf trainer Bill Mott doesn’t usually mess with the Derby. Plus, this horse has made only three lifetime starts. However, one of those starts was in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, where he finished second to Audible. Mott and company don’t just take flyers for the heck of it. This horse just may surprise.

My Boy Jack 30-1 – He’s co-owned by Don’t Tell My Wife Stables. That alone is enough of a reason to throw a random sawbuck on him. Plus, he’s a deep closer, which means you’re going to see him make a charge and think he’s going to get there. Spoiler alert: He probably isn’t.

Bolt d’Oro 8-1 – He was the early favorite until Justify showed up. He hasn’t won this year but this will be the first ride for Hall-of-Famer and Triple Crown winner, Victor Espinoza. Named after speedster, Usain Bolt, he has a great chance to get in the money, but probably can’t get past Justify.

Enticed 30-1 – My friend Steve has forgotten more about horse racing than I’ll ever know. He thinks Enticed may sneak into the money. Good enough for me. The horse hasn’t really competed at this level but his arc is headed in the right direction.

Bravaso 50-1 – Legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Derby at age 82. Unfortunately, his horse runs like he is also an octogenarian. If they only took 20 horses, this guy wouldn’t have made the field. Hard pass.

Mendellsohn 5-1 – He’s a an absolute blue-blood, having been purchased for a whopping $3 million. Trained by the best trainer in Europe, Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Europe’s top jock, Ryan Moore. Normally a turf horse, he’s coming off a dominating 18-length victory in the UAE Derby. That represented his first start on dirt and has generated enough buzz to make him the second betting favorite.

Instilled Regard 50-1 – You know the way to find out if you have a gambling problem? Look down at your ticket and see if it has the name Instilled Regard anywhere on it. If it does, time to head to a meeting.

Magnum Moon 6-1 – He’s four-for-four in his lifetime, including a four-length victory in the Arkansas Derby. He’s another strong horse who didn’t win as a two-year-old (See Justify). There aren’t very many records that have stood since 1882, except maybe twirliest mustache and tallest hat. Expect the Curse of Apollo to fall very soon…quite possibly this year.

Solomini 30-1 – Owned by Zayat Stables and trained by Bob Baffert, the same tandem that guided American Pharoah to the Triple Crown three years ago. He’s another son of Curlin, so the distance shouldn’t be a challenge. He feels undervalued here and if the race breaks the right way, he just might shock the world.

Vino Rosso 12-1 – Yet another son of prodigious inseminator, Curlin (seriously, that horse should be in the NBA), he’s starting to generate some last-minute buzz around the track. Ridden by Hall-of-Famer John Velasquez, who will be looking for a clean trip until the pretenders start to fade.

Noble Indy 30-1 – He’s won three of his four starts, including a gutty victory in the Louisiana Derby. He loves to run from the front, but that isn’t happening from this hole. He’s out of his class.

Combatant 50-1 – Not even in the field until a couple of last-minute scratches, it’s an honor just to be nominated. One horse has won from the 20-hole, Big Brown, ten years ago. This horse is neither big, nor brown. Pass.

Blended Citizen 50-1 – Sometimes it’s a struggle to find something positive to say about every horse. This is one of those times. With just one victory in a graded stakes race, his goal should be to just stay healthy. Maybe he can retire and spend his remaining days banging some of Curlin’s leftovers.